ONE of the UK's leading property experts has warned that homeowners hoping for a strong autumn housing market could be disappointed, and predicted that property prices will be "flat to slightly down" during September.
Property expert Jonathan Rolande, says August's modest improvement in house prices should not be mistaken for the beginning of a sustained recovery, with a combination of higher mortgage costs, economic uncertainty and the looming October Budget likely to weigh on the market.
His prediction comes after Nationwide recorded a 0.2% monthly rise in house prices in August, taking annual growth to 1.6%, with the average UK home now worth £275,465. This followed a 0.1% fall in July.
Jonathan believes several temporary factors helped support the market in August, including improved weather, the release of some pent-up demand from buyers who had delayed moving during the spring and a period of relative stability in mortgage rates.
However, he warns that the underlying picture remains challenging.
Jonathan said: "I'm sorry to kick off the month on a bit of a downer, but I am expecting September to disappoint a lot of sellers," says Rolande.
"August gave the housing market a small but surprising lift. It is positive news, but I wouldn't mistake it for a recovery. In fact, I expect September to give most of that gain back."
Jonathan points to the latest mortgage data as an early warning sign for the autumn market.
The Bank of England recorded 56,053 mortgage approvals in July, the lowest figure since January 2024 and 15% below the same month a year earlier. Meanwhile, the average rate on a new mortgage rose to 4.45%.
As mortgage approvals typically lead completed sales by around three months, Rolande believes the weakness in borrowing activity is likely to feed through into transactions during the autumn.
"The mortgage numbers tell the story," he says.
"Approvals lead completions by roughly three months, so the weakness we can see now is likely to arrive in the autumn market."
The biggest obstacle to a stronger September, however, could be uncertainty surrounding the 28 October Budget.
Jonathan expects many buyers to delay decisions until they know what measures the Government will introduce, potentially taking some of the momentum out of what would normally be one of the stronger periods of the property calendar.
"Buyers hate uncertainty," he says. "If they don't know what is coming, many will simply wait.
"That means September, normally one of the strongest periods of the year for the housing market, could be thinner than sellers are hoping."
Jonathan also says he has received calls from landlords looking to sell before the Budget amid concerns about possible changes to capital gains tax.
"If you want to be out before the Budget, you can't make that decision in the third week of October," he says. "You need to be on the market now, and some landlords clearly understand that."
Jonathan's prediction is for house prices to remain flat to slightly down in September, followed by a quieter period running towards Christmas as buyers and sellers wait for greater clarity following the Budget.
"August offered the market a little ray of sunshine," he says. "I fear September will bring the clouds back.
"2026 is increasingly looking like a year that will go out with a whimper rather than a bang."
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